Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251215 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.90     91.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.0  45.8  42.2  37.5  29.5  31.1  31.8  27.5 VU VU VU  U  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  36.0  39.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  43.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         93.6  93.6  93.6  93.6  97.9  97.9 104.6 104.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0 105.0  70.0  27.0  52.0  34.0  76.0  15.0  F  F  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        0.2%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 SH072026 251215 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.90     91.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.0  45.8  42.2  37.5  29.5  31.1  31.8  27.5 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%