Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251215 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.90     91.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.8  42.6  38.5  30.5  29.5  31.7  28.9  26.0 VU VU  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  40.0  40.0  41.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         98.6  98.6  98.6  98.6  98.6 102.9 102.9 109.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0  70.0  27.0  33.0  54.0  76.0  87.0   4.0  F  N  U  N  N  N  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  65.0  67.0  72.0  68.0  69.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        0.4%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 SH072026 251215 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.90     91.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.8  42.6  38.5  30.5  29.5  31.7  28.9  26.0 VF VF  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  65.0  67.0  72.0  68.0  69.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%