Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251215 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.90     92.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  29.5  29.0  27.0  25.7  32.2  26.5  28.9  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  39.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        103.6 103.6 103.6 103.6 103.6 103.6 103.6 107.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  45.0  69.0  95.0  60.0  91.0  25.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.4%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        0.7%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 SH072026 251215 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.90     92.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  29.5  29.0  27.0  25.7  32.2  26.5  28.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%