Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251215 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.90     92.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  29.0  27.0  28.4  29.3  30.1  27.0  29.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  39.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        103.6 103.6 103.6 103.6 103.6 103.6 103.6 107.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  69.0  95.0  80.0  54.0  86.0  17.0  24.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  68.0  69.0  62.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        0.7%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        1.1%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 SH072026 251215 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.90     92.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  29.0  27.0  28.4  29.3  30.1  27.0  29.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  68.0  69.0  62.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%