Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251216 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.00     93.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  27.1  27.2  24.3  32.1  27.7  27.5  21.2  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  39.0  41.0  43.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        101.5 101.5 101.5 105.7 105.7 110.1 117.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  95.0  80.0  60.0  92.0  25.0  -2.0  21.0  N  F  N  N  F  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.8%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        5.7%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.1%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        1.7%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        1.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        4.6%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        1.5%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        0.7%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.0%        2.6%        2.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 SH072026 251216 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.00     93.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  27.1  27.2  24.3  32.1  27.7  27.5  21.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%