Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251216 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.60     93.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  27.5  24.6  30.0  30.9  26.8  28.1  19.9  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  37.0  41.0  43.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 105.7 105.7 110.1 117.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0  80.0  60.0  54.0  86.0  16.0  24.0  44.0  F  N  N  N  F  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  67.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        4.8%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.7%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        1.4%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        1.1%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        3.9%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        1.1%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.6%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        2.3%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 SH072026 251216 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.60     93.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  27.5  24.6  30.0  30.9  26.8  28.1  19.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  67.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%