Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251216 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.20     93.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  32.3  28.9  26.0  23.9  25.1  20.2  23.7  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  33.0  33.0  35.0  37.0  42.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         97.4 101.5 101.5 101.5 105.7 105.7 110.1 117.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  67.0  57.0  34.0 -11.0  23.0  29.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        4.0%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.3%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        1.3%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.7%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        3.0%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 SH072026 251216 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.20     93.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  32.3  28.9  26.0  23.9  25.1  20.2  23.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%