Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251216 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.60     93.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  32.3  36.3  34.3  31.7  28.6  22.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  35.0  37.0  37.0  42.0  44.0  47.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        101.5 101.5 101.5 105.7 105.7 112.3 117.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  22.0 -13.0 -21.0 -30.0   7.0  30.0  47.0  N  U  U VU VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  58.0  61.0  61.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   2.0   3.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        1.7%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 SH072026 251216 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.60     93.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  32.3  36.3  34.3  31.7  28.6  22.0  22.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  58.0  61.0  61.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   2.0   3.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%