Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251217 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00     93.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  35.8  35.5  32.6  31.8  21.6  16.9  22.8  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  35.0  37.0  37.0  42.0  45.0  47.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         81.5  81.5  81.5  85.7  90.1  92.3  97.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  -9.0 -39.0 -57.0 -21.0  -4.0  14.0  44.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  56.0  61.0  60.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0  -0.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.8%        5.4%       11.6%
 25kt / 24h       10.0%       10.2%       10.1%
 30kt / 24h       10.0%        5.6%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h       10.0%        5.6%        7.8%
 40kt / 24h       10.0%        4.8%        7.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%        6.1%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        1.9%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 SH072026 251217 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00     93.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  35.8  35.5  32.6  31.8  21.6  16.9  22.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  56.0  61.0  60.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0  -0.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%