Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251217 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.10     92.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  30.7  28.4  26.3  25.8  25.0  27.3  27.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  35.0  35.0  37.0  43.0  46.0  46.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         91.5  91.5  91.5  95.7 102.3 107.0 107.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  16.0   3.0   5.0  22.0  34.0  50.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  63.0  63.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0   3.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.6%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        2.7%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.2%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        0.8%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        0.9%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        1.3%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 SH072026 251217 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.10     92.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  30.7  28.4  26.3  25.8  25.0  27.3  27.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  63.0  63.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0   3.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%