Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251217 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.60     92.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  27.3  26.2  25.0  19.9  19.9  19.0  27.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  33.0  35.0  37.0  43.0  45.0  46.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         92.4  96.5  96.5 100.7 107.3 107.3 112.0 112.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   3.0  -3.0  -8.0   9.0  40.0  62.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  67.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   5.0   6.0   5.0   2.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        1.1%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.56

 SH072026 251217 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.60     92.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  27.3  26.2  25.0  19.9  19.9  19.0  27.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  67.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   5.0   6.0   5.0   2.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%