Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251217 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.00     91.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  28.8  24.9  21.1  16.1  20.9  32.6  39.5  U  N  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  40.0  43.0  43.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  43.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.7 120.7 120.7 127.3 132.0 132.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  -3.0  -8.0   8.0  16.0  51.0  78.0  87.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   4.0   2.0  -0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        5.8%        1.5%        3.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 SH072026 251217 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.00     91.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  28.8  24.9  21.1  16.1  20.9  32.6  39.5  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   4.0   2.0  -0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%