Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251218 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.60     91.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  30.2  31.8  28.0  21.9  24.2  29.2  28.5  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  44.0  46.0  47.0  46.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.7 127.3 132.0 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -15.0 -34.0 -12.0  28.0  40.0  62.0  64.0 VU  U VU  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  63.0  71.0  69.0  72.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        1.5%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        5.1%        3.6%        4.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 SH072026 251218 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.60     91.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  30.2  31.8  28.0  21.9  24.2  29.2  28.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  63.0  71.0  69.0  72.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%