Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251218 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.10     91.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  31.8  27.8  23.2  24.5  22.9  29.2  24.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  45.0  46.0  46.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.1 137.0 137.0 137.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0 -34.0 -12.0  15.0  50.0  50.0  64.0  74.0  U VU  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  65.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   4.0   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.3%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        1.8%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h       10.5%        5.3%        7.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.14

 SH072026 251218 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.10     91.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  31.8  27.8  23.2  24.5  22.9  29.2  24.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  65.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   4.0   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%