Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251219 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.90     89.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  24.0  25.9  26.3  24.5  23.1  22.8  26.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  45.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 142.0 142.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  19.0   3.0  -2.0  11.0   3.0  18.0  34.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  63.0  57.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        6.9%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        9.6%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%        4.4%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        2.7%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       17.6%       13.6%       15.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 SH072026 251219 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.90     89.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  24.0  25.9  26.3  24.5  23.1  22.8  26.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  63.0  57.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%