Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072026 251219 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.60     88.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  24.8  29.6  31.8  31.6  28.4  32.0  40.3  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  -2.0  -2.0  14.0   0.0  10.0  33.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  58.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -0.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        7.6%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       12.0%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        3.3%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        4.2%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        2.9%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        7.9%       10.9%        9.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 SH072026 251219 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.60     88.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  24.8  29.6  31.8  31.6  28.4  32.0  40.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  58.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -0.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%