Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082026 251214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40    169.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  13.7  15.0  17.2  23.2  25.2  28.4  37.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  71.0  75.0  70.0  64.0  62.0  66.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   111.0 103.0 103.0 103.0  83.0  42.0  56.0  41.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  60.0  63.0  59.0  65.0  69.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -0.0  -1.0  -8.0  -0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.7%        8.5%        7.6%
 25kt / 24h       38.3%       57.5%       47.9%
 30kt / 24h       21.1%       40.9%       31.0%
 35kt / 24h        9.2%       40.9%       25.1%
 40kt / 24h        9.2%       40.9%       25.1%
 45kt / 36h       35.8%       55.1%       45.5%
 55kt / 36h       21.6%       32.1%       26.8%
 55kt / 48h       49.3%       37.2%       43.2%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%       24.7%       24.9%
 65kt / 72h       47.1%       33.6%       40.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 SH082026 251214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40    169.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  13.7  15.0  17.2  23.2  25.2  28.4  37.2  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  60.0  63.0  59.0  65.0  69.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -0.0  -1.0  -8.0  -0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%