Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082026 251215 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10    169.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  20.0  19.5  21.5  29.9  32.0  39.1  33.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  61.0  64.0  54.0  61.0  51.0  42.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 130.0 122.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  42.0  42.0  63.0  49.0  63.0  57.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  64.0  68.0  71.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   6.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        3.0%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h       10.5%       28.2%       19.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%       14.8%        9.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%       13.9%        8.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       12.2%        6.4%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%       26.2%       16.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%       10.6%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h       16.7%       12.7%       14.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        6.2%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h       10.7%       10.2%       10.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 SH082026 251215 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10    169.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  20.0  19.5  21.5  29.9  32.0  39.1  33.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  64.0  68.0  71.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   6.0  -2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%