Rapid Intensification Guidance SH082026 251215 06UTC Storm Located at : -14.60 170.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 63.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.4 23.5 22.1 29.8 29.3 34.5 42.3 50.0 N N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 59.0 63.0 54.0 55.0 61.0 58.0 61.0 52.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 80.0 95.0 110.0 112.0 76.0 75.0 55.0 21.0 N F F F N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 61.0 60.0 60.0 57.0 55.0 52.0 57.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -4.0 -4.0 -2.0 -1.0 -6.0 -5.0 -6.0 F F F N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.3% 5.7% 5.0% 25kt / 24h 22.4% 40.0% 31.2% 30kt / 24h 10.9% 23.1% 17.0% 35kt / 24h 5.3% 23.1% 14.2% 40kt / 24h 5.3% 21.4% 13.3% 45kt / 36h 16.4% 35.8% 26.1% 55kt / 36h 6.7% 15.5% 11.1% 55kt / 48h 28.2% 17.8% 23.0% 70kt / 48h 10.8% 10.0% 10.4% 65kt / 72h 21.1% 12.0% 16.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.76 SH082026 251215 06UTC Storm Located at : -14.60 170.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.4 23.5 22.1 29.8 29.3 34.5 42.3 50.0 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 61.0 60.0 60.0 57.0 55.0 52.0 57.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -4.0 -4.0 -2.0 -1.0 -6.0 -5.0 -6.0 U U U N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%