Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082026 251215 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    171.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  22.3  27.1  29.1  30.5  41.0  38.4  40.6  N  N  N  N  N VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  64.0  62.0  60.0  53.0  56.0  51.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  74.0  77.0  55.0  64.0  44.0  41.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  63.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        6.7%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h       20.3%       38.6%       29.5%
 30kt / 24h       10.2%       22.4%       16.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%       22.4%       13.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.7%       20.3%       12.0%
 45kt / 36h       13.3%       33.9%       23.6%
 55kt / 36h        5.9%       14.8%       10.3%
 55kt / 48h       18.8%       12.1%       15.5%
 70kt / 48h        6.1%        6.0%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h       14.3%        8.8%       11.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 SH082026 251215 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    171.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  22.3  27.1  29.1  30.5  41.0  38.4  40.6  N  N  N  N  N VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  63.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%