Rapid Intensification Guidance SH082026 251215 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.20 171.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 43.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.70 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.7 27.4 28.3 28.7 38.4 43.8 49.2 57.0 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 64.0 54.0 62.0 63.0 65.0 62.0 62.0 58.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 74.0 77.0 55.0 48.0 51.0 40.0 27.0 31.0 N N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 60.0 55.0 52.0 51.0 53.0 51.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.0 -3.0 -4.0 -6.0 -3.0 N N N N N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 1.4% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 3.9% 13.4% 8.6% 30kt / 24h 1.3% 5.3% 3.3% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 4.5% 2.4% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 3.9% 2.1% 45kt / 36h 2.4% 8.6% 5.5% 55kt / 36h 0.7% 2.1% 1.4% 55kt / 48h 9.5% 3.8% 6.6% 70kt / 48h 2.1% 1.3% 1.7% 65kt / 72h 9.5% 2.5% 6.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.70 SH082026 251215 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.20 171.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.7 27.4 28.3 28.7 38.4 43.8 49.2 57.0 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 60.0 55.0 52.0 51.0 53.0 51.0 N N N F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.0 -3.0 -4.0 -6.0 -3.0 N N N N N U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%