Rapid Intensification Guidance SH082026 251216 00UTC Storm Located at : -15.40 172.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 20.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.10 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.6 29.3 33.0 39.7 41.6 55.6 58.2 69.4 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 64.0 64.0 62.0 62.0 68.0 65.0 53.0 49.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 77.0 55.0 48.0 63.0 45.0 41.0 41.0 25.0 N N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 53.0 56.0 51.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 -0.0 -3.0 -1.0 -7.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 1.2% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 2.6% 8.9% 5.8% 30kt / 24h 1.0% 2.8% 1.9% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 2.3% 1.5% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 2.2% 1.5% 45kt / 36h 1.3% 5.3% 3.3% 55kt / 36h 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 3.2% 1.3% 2.3% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 65kt / 72h 2.5% 0.7% 1.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.84 SH082026 251216 00UTC Storm Located at : -15.40 172.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.6 29.3 33.0 39.7 41.6 55.6 58.2 69.4 N N F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 53.0 56.0 51.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 -0.0 -3.0 -1.0 -7.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%