Rapid Intensification Guidance SH082026 251216 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.10 172.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 17.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.1 36.9 42.1 46.0 56.9 64.5 70.4 78.6 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 64.0 64.0 63.0 62.0 58.0 63.0 61.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 55.0 48.0 63.0 51.0 40.0 28.0 31.0 28.0 N N N N N U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 54.0 51.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 49.0 U U U U VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -2.0 -0.0 -0.0 -2.0 1.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.8% 4.1% 2.4% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 70kt / 48h -0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.94 SH082026 251216 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.10 172.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.1 36.9 42.1 46.0 56.9 64.5 70.4 78.6 N F VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 54.0 51.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 49.0 F F F F VF F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -2.0 -0.0 -0.0 -2.0 1.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%