Rapid Intensification Guidance SH082026 251216 12UTC Storm Located at : -14.50 173.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 51.1 48.5 45.2 46.0 55.3 55.2 67.4 75.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 71.0 71.0 70.0 69.0 62.0 63.0 63.0 59.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 26.0 18.0 45.0 71.0 81.0 55.0 45.0 24.0 U U N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 55.0 56.0 55.0 59.0 61.0 59.0 U U U U U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -2.0 -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.4% 1.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.00 SH082026 251216 12UTC Storm Located at : -14.50 173.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 51.1 48.5 45.2 46.0 55.3 55.2 67.4 75.4 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 55.0 56.0 55.0 59.0 61.0 59.0 F F F F F F N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -2.0 -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3%