Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082026 251216 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90    172.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.3  39.7  41.1  51.9  50.7  59.1  62.4  63.8 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  77.0  77.0  76.0  68.0  62.0  58.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  45.0  71.0  66.0  72.0  50.0  27.0  23.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  59.0  56.0  59.0  62.0  62.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 SH082026 251216 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90    172.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.3  39.7  41.1  51.9  50.7  59.1  62.4  63.8 VF  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  59.0  56.0  59.0  62.0  62.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%