Rapid Intensification Guidance SH082026 251217 00UTC Storm Located at : -14.00 172.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 50.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.1 43.6 49.4 49.8 61.4 67.7 74.5 62.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 76.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 70.0 62.0 63.0 54.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 63.0 42.0 81.0 59.0 17.0 23.0 15.0 N N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 59.0 61.0 60.0 58.0 62.0 60.0 51.0 U U N N U N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -4.0 -3.0 -4.0 -3.0 -5.0 N N N F N F N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.20 SH082026 251217 00UTC Storm Located at : -14.00 172.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 50.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.1 43.6 49.4 49.8 61.4 67.7 74.5 62.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 59.0 61.0 60.0 58.0 62.0 60.0 51.0 F F N N F N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -4.0 -3.0 -4.0 -3.0 -5.0 N N N U N U N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%