Rapid Intensification Guidance SH082026 251217 06UTC Storm Located at : -13.80 172.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 44.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.4 55.8 59.4 63.6 79.7 78.7 79.4 78.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 77.0 71.0 63.0 48.0 46.0 25.0 10.0 0.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 127.9 121.5 106.2 F F F F F N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 44.0 35.0 65.0 61.0 52.0 48.0 24.0 32.0 N N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 58.0 56.0 56.0 55.0 54.0 52.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -0.0 7.0 2.0 -0.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.96 SH082026 251217 06UTC Storm Located at : -13.80 172.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 44.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.4 55.8 59.4 63.6 79.7 78.7 79.4 78.2 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 58.0 56.0 56.0 55.0 54.0 52.0 53.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -0.0 7.0 2.0 -0.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.6% 0.4% 1.0%