Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251219 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.20    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  18.8  14.2  12.5   7.2   9.7  13.2  17.4  F  N  F  F VF  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  36.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 115.7 115.7 113.6 111.5 109.4 109.4 107.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0   7.0   1.0  10.0  15.0   8.0  31.0  31.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.8%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%       13.4%        8.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        5.9%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        4.9%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        4.5%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       22.2%       13.6%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%        9.1%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h       23.2%        9.0%       16.1%
 70kt / 48h       10.8%        7.9%        9.4%
 65kt / 72h       16.6%       16.3%       16.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 SH092026 251219 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.20    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  18.8  14.2  12.5   7.2   9.7  13.2  17.4  N  N  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%