Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251219 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.10    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  14.8  11.7  10.2  10.0  10.1  17.6  25.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  34.0  32.0  32.0  31.0  29.0  25.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 115.7 115.7 113.6 111.5 111.5 105.5 103.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  24.0  10.0   4.0  -1.0  20.0  26.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.1%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       16.6%       10.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        8.8%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        7.6%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        6.5%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%       25.9%       15.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.4%       13.0%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h       20.1%       11.5%       15.8%
 70kt / 48h        9.0%       10.4%        9.7%
 65kt / 72h        8.5%       14.3%       11.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 SH092026 251219 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.10    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  14.8  11.7  10.2  10.0  10.1  17.6  25.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%