Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251220 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  11.9  11.7  10.3   9.7  12.6  22.9  27.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  36.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  32.0  32.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 108.6 108.6 110.7 106.5 104.4 104.4 102.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  10.0   4.0   4.0  14.0   9.0  34.0  -8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  65.0  63.0  59.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        7.4%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h       13.6%       37.6%       25.6%
 30kt / 24h        7.4%       26.7%       17.0%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%       26.6%       15.9%
 40kt / 24h        5.2%       21.7%       13.4%
 45kt / 36h       11.9%       51.9%       31.9%
 55kt / 36h        9.6%       36.7%       23.1%
 55kt / 48h       22.9%       11.1%       17.0%
 70kt / 48h       11.1%       21.5%       16.3%
 65kt / 72h        6.1%       19.4%       12.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.82

 SH092026 251220 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  11.9  11.7  10.3   9.7  12.6  22.9  27.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  65.0  63.0  59.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%