Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251220 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.20    106.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.7  11.2   9.5  10.0  10.1  17.6  22.8  24.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  31.0  31.0  32.0  32.0  29.0  29.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 108.6 106.5 106.5 106.5 106.5 104.4 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0   4.0   4.0  -1.0  20.0  26.0  31.0  -6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        8.0%        5.6%
 25kt / 24h       13.2%       37.3%       25.3%
 30kt / 24h        7.3%       27.4%       17.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       27.0%       15.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%       22.0%       12.3%
 45kt / 36h       11.6%       54.3%       33.0%
 55kt / 36h        9.9%       40.3%       25.1%
 55kt / 48h       28.5%       15.3%       21.9%
 70kt / 48h       15.3%       23.4%       19.3%
 65kt / 72h        6.4%       18.5%       12.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 SH092026 251220 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.20    106.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.7  11.2   9.5  10.0  10.1  17.6  22.8  24.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%