Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251220 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.30    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1   9.0  13.9  12.0  12.8  21.9  26.3  26.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.5 106.5 106.5 106.5 106.5 104.4 104.4  98.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  -3.0  -8.0   8.0  21.0  19.0  -7.0   3.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.5%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%       12.8%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        7.0%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        5.7%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        5.3%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%       17.6%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        3.7%        7.9%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h       17.6%        5.3%       11.4%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%        4.4%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        4.9%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 SH092026 251220 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.30    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1   9.0  13.9  12.0  12.8  21.9  26.3  26.9  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%