Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251220 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40    104.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.0  13.9  12.3  13.2  18.3  23.8  28.4  24.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  29.0  27.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.5 111.5 111.5 111.5 109.4 109.4 109.4 107.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  -7.0   8.0  -1.0   8.0   6.0   7.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -1.0   1.0  -0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        3.1%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       20.3%       12.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%       13.2%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%       11.8%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        7.6%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%       30.0%       16.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%       16.4%        9.3%
 55kt / 48h       14.0%        7.9%       10.9%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%        7.4%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h        3.5%        8.4%        5.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 SH092026 251220 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40    104.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.0  13.9  12.3  13.2  18.3  23.8  28.4  24.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -1.0   1.0  -0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%