Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251221 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40    104.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  12.2  15.8  15.7  23.3  27.0  25.1  24.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  32.0  33.0  32.0  29.0  28.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.6 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5  99.4  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0   6.0   4.0  18.0  30.0  14.0  13.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%       12.2%        9.3%
 25kt / 24h       15.8%       39.7%       27.7%
 30kt / 24h        8.8%       31.6%       20.2%
 35kt / 24h        6.5%       31.6%       19.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       24.7%       13.7%
 45kt / 36h        9.5%       42.9%       26.2%
 55kt / 36h        6.5%       27.5%       17.0%
 55kt / 48h       14.1%       10.7%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%       10.2%        7.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        9.1%        5.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 SH092026 251221 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40    104.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  12.2  15.8  15.7  23.3  27.0  25.1  24.4  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%