Rapid Intensification Guidance SH092026 251221 06UTC Storm Located at : -12.30 104.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 63.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 48.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.5 15.1 14.6 20.7 23.2 26.5 22.9 26.2 F F F N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 32.0 33.0 33.0 32.0 32.0 31.0 24.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 99.4 99.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 6.0 5.0 18.0 31.0 35.0 17.0 17.0 21.0 U U U N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 60.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 57.0 58.0 53.0 N N U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.1% 10.9% 10.0% 25kt / 24h 15.1% 33.4% 24.2% 30kt / 24h 10.2% 23.1% 16.7% 35kt / 24h 7.0% 23.0% 15.0% 40kt / 24h 4.0% 20.2% 12.1% 45kt / 36h 9.5% 36.8% 23.2% 55kt / 36h 7.2% 21.8% 14.5% 55kt / 48h 16.9% 6.5% 11.7% 70kt / 48h 6.5% 8.4% 7.5% 65kt / 72h 2.5% 8.5% 5.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.62 SH092026 251221 06UTC Storm Located at : -12.30 104.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.5 15.1 14.6 20.7 23.2 26.5 22.9 26.2 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 60.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 57.0 58.0 53.0 N N F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%