Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251221 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.20    103.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  14.2  17.3  21.3  21.8  23.9  19.3  23.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  31.0  28.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5  99.4  99.4  99.4  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  13.0  20.0  41.0  31.0  14.0  19.0 -16.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  54.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.7%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        7.5%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        3.6%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.8%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        7.1%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        2.2%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%        2.0%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        1.3%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        2.8%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 SH092026 251221 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.20    103.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  14.2  17.3  21.3  21.8  23.9  19.3  23.8  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  54.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%