Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251221 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00    102.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  18.0  22.1  22.4  25.0  20.4  19.8  22.8  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  29.0  29.0  28.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 110.7 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  20.0  41.0  48.0  12.0  18.0  20.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.1%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        3.6%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%        1.2%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        0.7%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%        2.1%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 SH092026 251221 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00    102.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  18.0  22.1  22.4  25.0  20.4  19.8  22.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%