Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251222 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00    102.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  24.0  27.9  24.4  23.2  24.2  21.1  12.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  35.0  35.0  34.0  33.0  32.0  32.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.5 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 110.7 110.7 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  15.0  32.0  41.0   6.0   2.0 -22.0 -26.0  U  U  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  54.0  52.0  48.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.5%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.7%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.1%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        4.7%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        1.3%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        0.9%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        2.8%        2.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 SH092026 251222 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00    102.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  24.0  27.9  24.4  23.2  24.2  21.1  12.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  54.0  52.0  48.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%