Rapid Intensification Guidance SH092026 251222 12UTC Storm Located at : -12.80 101.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 19.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.40 F TC SIZE [%] 65.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.1 18.7 22.5 22.9 24.0 21.2 14.8 22.3 N N N N N N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 32.0 27.0 22.0 21.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 109.4 109.4 109.4 109.4 109.4 109.4 109.4 103.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 32.0 9.0 2.0 11.0 2.0 -22.0 -26.0 -3.0 N U U U U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 59.0 57.0 56.0 53.0 47.0 47.0 40.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 -4.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.2% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.6% 1.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 3.1% 0.7% 1.9% 70kt / 48h 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.50 SH092026 251222 12UTC Storm Located at : -12.80 101.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 65.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.1 18.7 22.5 22.9 24.0 21.2 14.8 22.3 N N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 59.0 57.0 56.0 53.0 47.0 47.0 40.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 -4.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%