Rapid Intensification Guidance SH092026 251222 18UTC Storm Located at : -13.10 100.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 20.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 43.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.3 22.4 23.2 22.2 20.9 16.2 20.8 21.5 F N N N N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 22.0 27.0 27.0 28.0 29.0 30.0 29.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 102.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 3.0 8.0 21.0 -12.0 -1.0 25.0 27.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 53.0 53.0 49.0 50.0 47.0 49.0 U U U U U U VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 1.0% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 4.7% 2.7% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 2.0% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 0.7% 1.5% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.7% 1.3% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 6.1% 3.4% 55kt / 36h 0.5% 1.9% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 8.5% 1.7% 5.1% 70kt / 48h 2.6% 1.3% 2.0% 65kt / 72h 3.9% 3.2% 3.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.44 SH092026 251222 18UTC Storm Located at : -13.10 100.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.