Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251223 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.60    100.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  24.0  21.4  19.2  20.0  17.5  24.8  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4 104.4 104.4 108.6 108.6 108.6 108.6 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   8.0  21.0  -8.0 -22.0  15.0  12.0  31.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  49.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.8%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%       10.3%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        5.4%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.7%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        3.2%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       14.1%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        5.7%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        9.5%        4.1%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        3.4%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.4%        6.9%        6.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 SH092026 251223 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.60    100.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  24.0  21.4  19.2  20.0  17.5  24.8  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  49.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%