Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251223 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.50     99.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  21.4  19.2  20.6  17.9  21.0  22.1  19.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  32.0  32.0  33.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.4  99.4  99.4 103.6 103.6 103.6 103.6 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  20.0  -8.0 -12.0  -1.0  25.0  27.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  61.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        2.1%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%        9.9%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.1%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        4.4%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        3.5%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       12.9%        7.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        5.1%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h       11.2%        3.5%        7.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        2.9%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        5.5%        4.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 SH092026 251223 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.50     99.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  21.4  19.2  20.6  17.9  21.0  22.1  19.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  61.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%