Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251223 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.20     99.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  15.0  15.7  17.6  18.5  26.7  22.8  22.9  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  30.0  31.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4 108.6 108.6 108.6 108.6 104.4 104.4 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  -8.0   7.0  16.0  16.0  28.0  39.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  52.0  47.0  50.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.0%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        6.1%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.8%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.6%        1.7%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        1.1%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.5%        2.9%        4.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 SH092026 251223 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.20     99.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  15.0  15.7  17.6  18.5  26.7  22.8  22.9  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  52.0  47.0  50.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%