Rapid Intensification Guidance SH092026 251223 18UTC Storm Located at : -12.30 98.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 48.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 16.0 18.3 18.3 21.9 25.0 19.6 20.4 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 33.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 109.4 109.4 109.4 109.4 107.4 109.4 109.4 109.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -8.0 6.0 16.0 12.0 21.0 29.0 39.0 21.0 U U U U U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 52.0 49.0 51.0 45.0 41.0 39.0 36.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 3.3% 1.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.3% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 4.3% 2.3% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 1.2% 0.8% 55kt / 48h 10.9% 1.1% 6.0% 70kt / 48h 3.5% 0.8% 2.2% 65kt / 72h 11.1% 2.9% 7.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.50 SH092026 251223 18UTC Storm Located at : -12.30 98.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 48.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 16.0 18.3 18.3 21.9 25.0 19.6 20.4 U U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 52.0 49.0 51.0 45.0 41.0 39.0 36.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%