Rapid Intensification Guidance SH092026 251224 00UTC Storm Located at : -12.10 98.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 82.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 74.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 18.1 16.4 15.6 23.6 22.0 22.1 24.0 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 33.0 34.0 33.0 30.0 32.0 32.0 33.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.4 108.6 104.4 102.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 106.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 3.0 22.0 18.0 -9.0 -21.0 25.0 7.0 U U U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 50.0 51.0 47.0 52.0 57.0 56.0 U U U U VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -4.0 -7.0 -3.0 -1.0 N N N N F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 3.2% 2.2% 25kt / 24h 4.7% 17.4% 11.1% 30kt / 24h 1.8% 10.7% 6.2% 35kt / 24h 1.1% 9.7% 5.4% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 6.5% 3.8% 45kt / 36h 2.7% 21.2% 11.9% 55kt / 36h 1.8% 10.0% 5.9% 55kt / 48h 12.0% 4.5% 8.3% 70kt / 48h 4.1% 4.4% 4.2% 65kt / 72h 4.0% 7.4% 5.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.52 SH092026 251224 00UTC Storm Located at : -12.10 98.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 18.1 16.4 15.6 23.6 22.0 22.1 24.0 N N U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 50.0 51.0 47.0 52.0 57.0 56.0 F F F F VF F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -4.0 -7.0 -3.0 -1.0 N N N N U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%