Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251224 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00     97.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  16.4  16.1  19.8  23.2  20.5  21.5  23.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  34.0  33.0  33.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 108.6 108.6 102.4 104.4 108.6 108.6 110.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  22.0  18.0  14.0 -28.0   9.0  14.0  26.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  54.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        6.6%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       10.0%       29.1%       19.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.5%       19.6%       12.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%       19.4%       11.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       13.5%        7.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%       34.4%       19.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%       19.8%       11.5%
 55kt / 48h       12.2%        4.3%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%        9.1%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%       12.5%        7.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 SH092026 251224 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00     97.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  16.4  16.1  19.8  23.2  20.5  21.5  23.8  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  54.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%