Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251224 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90     97.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  19.5  24.6  25.8  24.6  28.0  27.3  27.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  33.0  33.0  37.0  37.0  39.0  37.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 108.6 108.6 108.6 108.6 108.6 108.6 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  20.0   4.0  13.0  19.0  10.0  19.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  61.0  64.0  66.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.7%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        6.7%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        2.8%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.1%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        7.5%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        2.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%        1.9%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.8%        1.5%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        3.3%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 SH092026 251224 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90     97.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  19.5  24.6  25.8  24.6  28.0  27.3  27.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  61.0  64.0  66.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%