Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251224 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90     97.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  24.6  26.2  24.7  23.7  27.1  26.8  20.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  33.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 108.6 108.6 108.6 108.6 108.6 108.6 110.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0   4.0  13.0  12.0  24.0  15.0  43.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  53.0  56.0  61.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        0.9%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        0.9%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        3.7%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.9%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%        1.0%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        0.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.0%        2.1%        2.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 SH092026 251224 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90     97.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  24.6  26.2  24.7  23.7  27.1  26.8  20.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  53.0  56.0  61.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%