Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251225 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90     96.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  28.1  25.9  26.0  25.5  21.4  21.5  13.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  34.0  37.0  38.0  37.0  37.0  36.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.7 105.7 105.7 103.6 103.6 103.6 105.7 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  19.0  25.0  31.0  30.0  28.0  19.0  12.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  55.0  61.0  59.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.2%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%        9.9%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        4.6%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        4.1%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        3.4%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%        9.5%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        3.1%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%        2.7%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        1.9%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.5%        5.1%        4.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.78

 SH092026 251225 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90     96.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  28.1  25.9  26.0  25.5  21.4  21.5  13.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  55.0  61.0  59.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%