Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092026 251225 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40     95.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  21.0  19.3  17.9  17.3  19.9  18.2  16.3  N  N  N  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  32.0  35.0  35.0  36.0  36.0  38.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         99.4  99.4  99.4 103.6 103.6 105.7 103.6 107.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  23.0  31.0  55.0  64.0  69.0  45.0  37.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        3.6%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        8.2%       20.2%       14.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%       12.2%        8.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%       11.8%        6.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        8.3%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%       28.5%       17.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%       14.1%        8.8%
 55kt / 48h       23.6%        9.2%       16.4%
 70kt / 48h        9.6%        8.6%        9.1%
 65kt / 72h       17.3%       15.6%       16.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 SH092026 251225 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40     95.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  21.0  19.3  17.9  17.3  19.9  18.2  16.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%